84th Oscars Predictions (Flack’s Predictions)

Posted on | January 22, 2012 | 2 Comments

84th Oscars (for movies that were released in 2011)

This year there will be 5 to 10 films nominated for Best Picture.  A film must get 5% of the number 1 votes to qualify. Click here to  read the rules announcement. This makes it more confusing to predict the nominees, but join Flack as he predicts the possibilities.

Since the nominations have not been announced yet, I’ll focus on the Best Picture predictions.  I have not seen all the films I’ll be talking about, but based on predictions from such resources as Entertainment Weekly, Empire Magazine, the New York Times, my own movie knowledge, and help from other people, I will do my best.

So far I think there are 3 obvious front runners: The Descendants, War Horse, and The Artist.  I cannot see the Descendants, but I did see War Horse and The Artist.  War Horse is one of my favorite films of the year, but The Artist is pretty good too. Hugo and The Help also have good chances. Predicting the next batch of films is a bit trickier.  The way you can tell which are the 5 front runners are for Best Picture when there are more than 5 movies nominated is by comparing them with the movies also nominated for Best Director. This a bit hard obviously because we don’t know which movies will be nominated for Best Direcor so I guess I’ll just have to get those as well.  I’m guessing the nominees for Best Director will be Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), and Tate Taylor (The Help).  If there are any more than 5 nominated for Best Picture, I’m guessing they will be The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, and Moneyball. If there are 10, the last 2 would probably be blockbusters, like Harry Potter or dramas that got mixed reviews, like The Ides of March.

The Golden Globes can sometimes make predicting the nominees a little easier but only one movie (Slumdog Millionare) in the last seven years has been both the Best Picture winner for the Globes and the Oscars. Also for the Globes there is Best Drama and Best Comedy or Musical instead of one Best Picture like the Oscars. This year it didn’t help much either but  as many had predicted The Descendants won Best Drama and The Artist won Best Comedy or Musical. Although War Horse hasn’t fared so well in the awards season I am guessing that the Academy will find it hard to ignore the movie’s emotional epicness and Spielbergian story.

The Help is likely to have Viola Davis win Best Actress and Octvaia Spencer win Best Supporting Actress. Meryl Streep, however could beat Davis and for Best Actor George Clooney for The Descendants is likely to beat Brad Pitt for Moneyball and  Jean Dujardin for The Artist. I think that War Horse will also win for Best Cinematography, Musical Score, Adapted Screenplay, and Director as well as Picture. It will probably not win or even be nominated for any of it’s actors but in the past Titanic and The Lord of the Ring: The Return of the King (2 of the 3 movies to win 11 Oscars, which is more than any other) didn’t win in any of the acting categories. The 3rd movie was Ben-Hur, which won Best Actor for Charlton Heston and Best Supporting Actor for Hugh Griffith.

I am expecting War Horse to win but things might change. Almost 8 months ago I thought War Horse and The Tree of Life would be the two frontrunners and then in September I thought it would be War Horse against J. Edgar. See, things change. But will The Descendants, with it’s acclaimed script and applauded acting beat War Horse. Or could it be The Artist with it’s unique premise and magical music?

I think Billy Crystal will be a good host because he’s good in Monster’s Inc (Mike) and The Princess Bride (Miracle Max).  Many people thought last year’s show with Anne Hathaway and James Franco was horrible but I thought they were just  okay. I hope that this year the show can mix funny jokes, silly spoofs, celebrity cameos, great guests, and terrific hosting to excellent effect. If they can they will have succeeded at creating an enjoyable show.

Now I will list 8 movies. I’ve seen all of them except The Descendants and I have put them in order from most likely to win to least likely to win.

And the nominees will probably be…

Here are the top 5 no doubt about it nominees:

1. War Horse: Chance: I think this is the frontrunner. Why: The Academy loves epics and this is just that. Steven Spielberg is likely to win his third Best director award and second Best Picture award for this war adventure film. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director  (Steven Spielberg), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Costumes, Editing, Art Direction, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 7

2. The Artist: Chance: I think is tied with The Descendants as the second most likely film to win. Why: Fantastic, fun, greatly acted, superbly directed, and sad. This movie is very entertaining and a good bet. Other Possible Nominations:Best Director (Micheal Hazanvicius), Actor (Jean Dujardin), Supporting Actress (Berenice Bejo),Original Screenplay, Original Score, Costumes, Editing, Art Direction, Editing, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 10

3. The Descendants: Chance: I think this is tied with The Artist as the  second most likely film to win. Why: This George Clooney movie has been favored by many critics. The Academy usually prefers epic dramas rather than independent ones like this but the movie has gotten great reviews so I think it’s still a strong contender. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Alexander Payne), Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (Shailene Woodley), Cinematogaphy, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 5

4. The Help: Chance: I think this movie probably won’t win but will definitely be nominated. Why: With a great cast and an inspiring story, the movie is a definite nomination. In terms of winning however  it’s chances are rather slim. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Tate Taylor), Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress(Octavia Spencer), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chaistan), Original Score, Original Song, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 7

5. Hugo: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win. Why: Superbly directed and terrifically acted, the film has a good chance. Even though I highly doubt it will win it has gotten stronger buzz after Martin Scorsese won Best Director at the Golden Globes. Other Possible Nominations: Best Director (Martin Scorsese), Visual Effects, Original Score, Costume Design, Cinematography, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 6

I’m guessing this year there will be 3 more extra nominees:6. Midnight in Paris: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win. Why: Woody Allen’s “comeback” film has gotten strong reviews. I disagree with many others that is a frontrunner and I’m betting Tate Taylor (for The Help) will beat Allen for a  Best Director nomination. But with a smart script and creative cast this movie will definitely get nominated. Other possible nominations: Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, and possible a few others.
Possible Total:3

7. The Tree of Life: Chance: I think this movie will be nominated but not win.  Why: The winner of the Cannes Palm D’Or Award, the film has slightly lost it’s momentum from a definite front runner to being a possible possibility. Still Terence Malick could be a possible Best Director nominee and the Visual Effects could get a nod.  Other possible nominations: Best Visual Effects and possibly a few others.  Possible Total: 2

8. Moneyball: Chance: I think this film will be nominated but not win. Why:  Brad Pitt will be no doubt about it be nominated for Best Actor.  And the director Bennett Miller could be a surprise nominee. The script and Jonah Hill are also likely. Other possible nominations: Best Actor (Brad Pitt), Best Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Best Adapted Screenplay, and possibly a few others.
Possible Total: 4

I doubt there will be any other nominees for Best Picture, so I’m not going to list any more. If there are though I’m guessing they would probably be one of the following:  Bridesmaids, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Ides of March, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, or the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

The final verdict:  So far the race has been narrowed down to 3 top movies, although Hugo and The Help are good options too.  The top 3 are in my order: War Horse, The Artist, and The Descendants.

I’ll be back to talk about the nominees (possibly with Flick), after they are announced on Tuesday by Melissa Leo and Colin Firth. In the meantime go buy the amazing  book, The Academy Awards®: The Complete Unofficial History — Revised and Up-to-date. It tells you all the winners from 1927 to 2010. Also I cannot wait to watch Wings, the first movie ever to win Best Picture at the Oscars. You can get it on Netflix. The book Oscar Fever is also good but it is different than the other one because it is more of behind the scenes history of the Oscars. I can’t wait until February 26 (the show) but January 24 comes first (nominations announcement.) If you’re impatient go to the website to watch the show’s hilarious trailer and don’t forget to catch up on watching all the actual movies.


2 Responses to “84th Oscars Predictions (Flack’s Predictions)”

  1. flickflack
    January 22nd, 2012 @ 10:35 am

    Nice post Flack!
    From, Flick

  2. Steve Itkin
    January 25th, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

    Great predictions…almost right on target!

Leave a Reply