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Updated June Preview: Part 2

Posted on | June 23, 2012 | Add Comments

BraveAfter a little delay I’m back with part 2 of my June movie preview. I’ll talk about how the newest releases will do with critics and at the box office. I will talk about everything from global moneymaking to Rotten Tomatoes scores. Also just so you know OWG means opening weekend gross, DTG means domestic total gross, and ITG means international total gross. RT means Rotten Tomatoes.  Enjoy!

Seeking A Friend For The End Of The WorldJune 22nd: This week has one movie that will make a ton of money and likely become the highest grossing movie of June. There is also an oddball historical horror flick, an apocalyptic romantic comedy, and the latest effort from one of the world’s most admired directors. Of course the four films I am talking about are Pixar’s Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Seeking A Friend For The End of the World, and Woody Allen’s To Rome With Love. Adjusted for inflation no Pixar movie has made under $191 million in the US. Last year when Cars 2 made that much and became the first Pixar movie to make under $200 million domestically as well as get a rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes (39% splat) fans got worried. Will Brave be nominated for Best Picture the way Best Animated Film Oscar winners Up and Toy Story 3 were? Probably not. But will it make some money, get rather favorable reviews, and at the very least be nominated for the Best Animated Film at the Oscars? Yes. This is one of the summer movies I am most anticipated to see. The animation as always looks absolutely beautiful and the story and action seem pretty good. Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World stars Steve Carrell and Keira Knightley but it is rated R and has an indie crew. In other words not likely to be a mainstream box office hit. The director, Lorene Scafaria is directing for the first time ever but she wrote the movie Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist which got a 73% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. This should get about the same. At the box office that movie made $31 million in the US total and it was in wide release. Scafaria’s new movie has more star power than Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist but it has a much more limited release so it should do worse at the box office (it also has more tough competiton than Nick and Nora had) and it should do worse with the critics because it is slightly more mainstream. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter sounds ridiculous and will probably be a flop. Luckily it only cost $69 million and at least, worldwide it should earn a little more than that. Critics are also likely to call it one of the worst movies of the year. Meanwhile Woody Allen has a new movie, To Rome With Love a romantic comedy told in four star studded vignettes. This does not seem like it will be as successful as Midnight In Paris because it did not play at Cannes, let alone open Cannes, but it should still do okay with critics and good at the box office for a limited release.Here’s how I think past releases will fall into the rankings: Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted: $15 million Prometheus: $9 million Rock Of Ages: $6 million That’s My Boy: $5 million Brave: RT: 88% fresh OWG: $82 million DTG: $305 million ITG: $725 million Seeking A Friend for The End Of the World: RT: 70% fresh OWG: $5 million DTG: $15 million ITG: $18 million Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: RT: 13% splat OWG: $11 million DTG: $24 million ITG: $45 million To Rome With Love: RT: 71% fresh OWG: low because of limited release DTG: $4 million ITG: $25 million

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire HunterPeople Like UsJune 29th: R rated teddy bear comedy Ted and to a lesser extent, Dreamworks family drama, People Like Us should do not bad at the box office. Ted will probably be the second most successful adult comedy of the year, just behind $135 million grosser 21 Jump Street, that opened on March 16th this year. People Like Us is said to be “The Help” of the year: a Dreamworks summer drama. Or at least that’s what the ads say. But box office wise and definitely Oscar wise there is no way this will do as good as that film. For one People Like Us is not based on an extremely popular book with a lot fans who can’t wait to see the movie like The Help. Ted should open strong as what will perhaps be the only R rated comedy hit of the summer. Though it will only have four days too shine before The Amazing Spider Man it is aiming for a very different target audience. It will have to hold up very well in a summer this packed but I think it can make at least over  $100 million in the US alone. Meanwhile adult comedies Magic Mike and Tyler Perry’s Madea Witness Protection are also being released. Magic Mike star Channing Tatum led and two movies to over $100 million: The Vow in Febuary with $125 million and in 21 Jump Street March with $137 million . However this time around I don’t think that Tatum will pull it off. Meanwhile the Madea movie will also make little money. I expect both films to get bad reviews from the critics. Even if Ted and People Like Us turn out to be respectable hits there is simply no way that they can win the number 1 crown against likely to be massive holdover Brave, which should do fine with about $63 million, almost the same drop Monster’s Inc. had 11 years ago. Also Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter should drop to about $4 million showing no signs of being a big holdover success. That should also be true for Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World which I predict will turn in $3 million. To Rome With Love should continue to do okay for a limited release. That’s My Boy should make $2 million and Rock Of Ages $3 million. Critics will not like any of these new releases except for People Like Us and Ted just a little. Ted: RT: 69% OWG: $30 million DTG: $85 million ITG: $300 million People Like Us: RT: 75%  OWG: $19 million DTG:$66 million ITG: $120 million Magic Mike: RT: %19 OWG: $9 million DTG: $22 million ITG: $50 million Tyler Perry’s Madea Witness Protection: RT: 10% OWG: $3 million DTG: $8 million OWG: $15 million

Updated Summer Movie Preview: June 2012

Posted on | June 3, 2012 | Add Comments

In the first part of my June movie preview I will discuss and predict critics reactions and box office tallies. In the first three weeks of June there is only one movie that will totally make over $100 million in the US alone although there are two other films that I’m guessing will make over that mark as well. Without further adieu, here we go!

Snow White and the HuntsmanJune 1st: To kick off June is one of the more intriguing new blockbusters, Snow White and the Huntsman. It stars box office biggies Kristen Stewart (from Twilight) as the leading heroine and Chris Hemsworth (from The Avengers and Thor) as the Huntsman. A previous Snow White film Mirror Mirror, released March this year, failed at the box office and with critics. However, this version of the classic fairy tale looks darker, more modern, and less of a happy family movie and more an exciting scary fantasy film. On paper this new modern version seems like it will be more successful than Mirror Mirror.  However there are a few detractors: the director Rupert Sanders has never made a movie before, Kristen Stewart doesn’t always get good acting reviews, also movies such as The Avengers (which is making a lot money and will probably be third place with $29 million)  and Men in Black 3 (which will likely be successful in the long run and be in second place with $40 million), will still be competing against new movies coming out like Snow White. However some people are still wondering if women will want to see an action movie and if men will want to see a Snow White movie. I think the film seems like it has enough big movie stars, battle scenes, and fairy tale magic to lure in enough audiences to make the movie movie successful. It might not be an Avengers type smash, it might not even earn back it’s $170 million budget back in the US, and it certainly won’t be as big as Alice In Wonderland but it should still be enough for the cast and crew to make money. Critics will probably enjoy the movie but not the actors and action. RT (Rotten Tomatoes) prediction 75% fresh. OWG (opening weekend gross): $45 million DTG (domestic total gross): $160 million ITG (international total gross): $400 million

Prometheus
Madgascar 3: Europe's Most WantedJune 8th: Prometheus has been called by many as “the most anticipated non-sequel of 2012. Why? Because Ridely Scott is returning to sci-fi for the first time since his 1982 movie Blade Runner was released 30 years ago. However this movie is said to be a prequel on Ridley Scott’s only other science fiction film: Alien. Though many Alien fans are waiting to see it, there are numerous detractors. For one, there are no real movie stars all though Michael Fassbender, Noomi Rapace, Charlize Thereon, and Idris Elba have all been in some famous movies. Also the Alien movies were not massive smashes at the time although adjusted for inflation Alien made $249 million. And the biggest problem is that the movie is rated R, which will prevent younger people, like me, from seeing it.  Still I think there will be enough older people who want to see it. Critics will likely enjoy this film because Alien and Aliens were well reviewed, although the other two Alien films were not. Also that weekend, the animated movie Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted opens.  The previous Madagascar films have been very successful, especially in the rest of the world were foreign audiences have flocked to see them. Lately animated sequester such as Cars 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 last Summer have performed considerably less compared to their predecessors.  However the trailers of this movie have showed enough combinations of comedy and action to lure family audiences in.The film showed at Cannes this year and has gotten fairly good reviews so far.  This will be a very tight weekend of competing films, although they will be vying for very different audiences. The rest of of the box office: 3rd place: Snow White and The Huntsman with $33 million 4th place: Men in Black 3 with $35 million 5th place: The Avengers with $15 million  Prometheus: RT (Rotten Tomatoes) prediction 88% fresh. OWG: $40 million DTG: $130 million ITG: $445 million. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted  RT prediction 80% fresh. OWG: $65 million DTG: $195 million ITG: $605 million.
first kids movie summer

Rock Of AgesJune 15th: This weekend is an odd one with two new releases that likely won’t even make over $65 million domestically. So far this year most movies have either totally bombed (John Carter, Battleship) or totally made money (The Avengers, The Hunger Games). One release, Rock of Ages cost $80 million to make and in the US it probably won’t earn that much. Other recent summer movie musicals Mamma Mia (DTG: $144 million) and Hairspray (DTG: $118 million) both had opening weekends of $27 million. Worldwide they made $609 million and $202  million, respectively. This time though Hairspray director Adam Shankman has made a movie starring Russell Brand, Paul Giammatti, Catherine Zeta Jones, Alec Baldwin, and most surprisingly Tom Cruise as a singing rock star. I think that not many people will go to see this film and it will be a flop. Tom Cruise being a silly singer rather than a super spy may be a  intereeseting premise but that’s not enough to carry a movie to box office gold and critical praise (it definitely won’t get either of those two prestigious things). While it could be a breakout hit it doesn’t seem like it will be. The other release Adam Sandler’s latest comedy That’s My Boy should open just a bit below Jack and Jill‘s $25 million opening weekend and $75 million DTG, and ITG of $149 million. However considering this an R rated comedy and not a PG one it should do a bit worse. Also Adam Sandler has never been critically loved. But which Adam will get the top box office spot: Shankman or Sandler? Neither (although Sandler will do a little better! Madagascar 3 should easily hold the top spot with $53 million and Prometheus should be just a little behind in 2nd place with about $35 million. Because of weak new release competition Prometheus should turn into something of a surprise hit and Madagascar something of a big hit. Rock of Ages: RT: 48% rotten OWG: $17 million DTG: $55 million ITG: $115 million That’s My Boy: RT: 25% rotten OWG: $19 million DTG: $62 million ITG: $115 million

That's My BoyAlso don’t forget to check back soon for movie talk from Flack about the rest of June!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May Movie Preview (Flack’s Preview)

Posted on | May 4, 2012 | Add Comments

The AvengersAnd just when you thought I was gone….. I’m back with updated May box office predictions! And let me tell you: you have not seen this before! I will talk about The Avengers, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Dark Shadows, Battleship,What To Expect When You’re Expecting, Moonrise Kingdom, and Men In Black 3. The Avengers is the massive month of May movie that out of all these films I (and 1 billion other people who will help make it a box office success) am looking forward to the most month. NOTE 1: All the films I will talk about except The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Moonrise Kingdom, and Dark Shadows are in 3-D. NOTE 2: OWG means opening weekend gross, DTG means domestic total gross, an ITG means international total gross all for my box office predictions. May the 4th be with you…………….always!!

The Besat Exotic Marigold HotelMay 4th: Walt Disney has made only a little over $200 million so far this year (that’s about $300 million off from the the highest amount from a studio so far which is $500 million). Luckily they’ve made a deal with Marvel Studios and are producing The Avengers. The film was released on April 27th in the rest of the world (Marvel’s foreign high was Iron Man 2‘s $316 million and this will likely surpass that number this weekend). This will definitely be the second highest grossing movie of the summer. Marvel’s largest opening weekend was Iron Man 2‘s $128 million and the lowest was The Incredible Hulk‘s $55 million. Here are some other stats: Domestic Money: Iron Man‘s $318 million is the most but The Incredible Hulk‘s $134 million is the least. International Total: The lowest was The Incredible Hulk‘s $128 million. However this film will likely do a lot better than all of those movies, not least because all the characters are being combined.Why? Fan anticipation, a recognizable previous franchise, added 3-D money, and a current 92% on Rotten Tomatoes will help this movie avenge at the box office. The will also likely beat The Hunger Games as the third highest opening weekend ever. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel will likely get a weak $1 million US opening.Meanwhile this will also be a weekend where past weekend releases The Hunger Games (now 4th spot: $5 million), The Lucky One (3rd spot: $8 million), and Think Like A Man (2nd spot: $10 million) will die down. The Avengers OWG: $157 million DTG: $500 million ITG: $1 billion The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: OWG: $1 million OWG: $15 million ITG: $75 million

Dark ShadowsMay 11th: This will be one of the closest weekends of the summer. If Dark Shadows didn’t open the weekend after The Avengers then it might make more money but it will be top spot (The Avengers is safe with a $60 million second weekend, dwindling a little over 50%, similar to The Hunger Games although The Hunger Games would have done worse if it opened during the summer). Alice in Wonderland‘s $116 million opening is way out of reach but Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street‘s $9 million is also a lot lower goal. This will be in the middle of Johnny Depp\Tim Burton collaborations, which is not bad for an adaption of a 1960’s soap opera TV show. Meanwhile April releases and The Hunger Games will basically stop making money. Dark Shadows: OWG: $65 million DTG: $200 million ITG: $300 million

BattleshipMay 16th\18th: Another close weekend. Sacha Baron Cohen’s new movie The Dictator will easily get $25 million, which is not terrible for an R rated political spoof comedy. Cohen’s comedies have done okay in the past and this should do just a bit worse (there are a lot of comedies being released this summer). Dark Shadows will probably have about$26 million and The Avengers is a good bet for $40 million. Meanwhile the big new opener is Battleship which will wind up close to the first Transformers movie (in tone, style, critics reviews, and box office money). The film itself looks bad, but then so does Transformers. Meanwhile, What To Expect When You’re Expecting is a star studded romantic comedy that should open fairly high, due to it’s prestigious cast lineup. The Dictator: OWG: $24 million DTG: $75 million ITG: $175 million Battleship: OWG: $70 million DTG: $210 million ITG: $310 million What To Expect When You’re Expecting: OWG: $25 million DTG: $100 million ITG: $200 millionWhat To Expect When You're Expecting

Men In Black 3May 25th: The Avengers will be massive but to a lesser extent I’m predicting Men In Black 3 will too. The two previous Men In Black films (from 1997 and 2002) mad $51 million and $52 million on their opening weekends, $250 million and $190 domestically, and $589 million and $441 million, respectively. Of course adjusted for inflation these movies made a lot more, though the second film is widely considered to be one of the most disappointing sequels in movie history. However the first is said to be a comedy classic. The latest film should be a comeback movie and after the fun, funny trailers it should open to $55 million at the least. Also the movie is in 3-D which could boost it’s box office haul. Will Smith has not been in a blockbuster since Hancock (2008 so people will have an oppurtunity to see him in an action movie again. Tommy Lee Jones is back and Josh Brolin joins as Lee’s character in the 1960’s. Meanwhile that very same weekend Moonrise Kingdom gets a limited release and the movie it should open closest to is Midnight In Paris (OWG: $5 million DTG: $56 million ITG: $148 million). Both are star studded summer romantic comedies that open Cannes. Men In Black 3: OWG: $85 million DTG: $20o million ITG: $500 million Moonrise Kingdom OWG: $5 million DTG: $60 ITG: $145 million

Moonrise KingdomMay will have a massive blockbuster (The Avengers), a small art house flick (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) a surprise success (Dark Shadows), a profitable comedy (The Dictator),a big, bad blockbuster (Battleship), a comedy success ( a comeback hit (Men In Black 3), and an indie hit (Moonrise Kingdom).  I can’t wait to see The Avengers and Men In Black 3, I hope to see Moonrise Kingdom, and wish I could see Dark Shadows. Bye- Bye!!!!!