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Golden Globes Predictions (Flack’s Analysis)

Posted on | January 12, 2014 | Add Comments

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host tonight's Golden GlobesThe Golden Globes are like the Oscars’ funnier, more relaxed younger brother and they’re back for their 71st year. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler (hosting for the second time) are sure to have plenty of offensive jokes up their sleeves and there’ll probably be an hour more Red-Carpet coverage than really necessary. But how about the nominees? Who’s going to walk away with all the gold? Who’ll be snubbed? What will be the big surprise of the night? I’m here to give you my in-depth predictions on all the Film categories (probable winners are in bold). Let’s get started!

12 Years A Slave will likely win Best Drama at tonight's Golden GlobesBest Motion Picture, Drama:
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
Analysis: It’s basically a two way fight here: 12 Years a Slave vs Gravity. The Globes often pick the lighter film (Gravity, in this case) and are known for surprises. Still, though Slave has been criticized by some voters it has greater awards momentum. Either could win but expect 12 Years A Slave to come out on top.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Analysis: Plain and simple: there’s no way American Hustle won’t win.

Best Director – Motion Picture:
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Analysis: An almost impossible category to predict. Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell are all gunning for the big prize. If 12 Years A Slave wins Best Drama voters may want to spread some Gravity love (the film is also more of a technical achievement). So, assuming it comes down to Cuaron and Russell, American Hustle will probably champion. The film has more nominations and a likely Best Comedy win can’t hurt.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Analysis: Blanchett seems to be a universal favorite (though her film isn’t getting much attention) but I’m predicting a surprise that could through the category on it’s head: Sandra Bullock.

Count on American Hustle's Amy Adams to win Best Supporting Actress, Musical  or Comedy at tonight's Golden Globes

Best Actress In A Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Analysis: Every awards show loves Meryl Streep but she’s won a lot and her new film isn’t getting much praise. As long as Hustle wins Best Comedy, Amy Adams is a sure thing.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama:
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
Analysis: This is easily the toughest category to call. Many are predicting a surprise win for McConaughey but the Globes seem to prefer 12 Years a Slave over Dallas Buyers Club, which would position Ejiofor as winner.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Analysis: If voters really love American Hustle, Christian Bale could win. But awards shows like showing respect to film legends and Bruce Dern gave the performance of a lifetime.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Analysis: Nyong’o and Squibb have earned a lot of support for star-making turns. But the Globes loves mega-star celebrities and Lawrence certainly fits that category. It doesn’t hurt that American Hustle has support from almost every major category.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Brühl (Rush)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Analysis: Jared Leto has been sweeping the critics awards for this category and many are calling him the undeniable frontrunner. Though his film doesn’t have much support outside of it’s actors, it’s safe to say Leto will win.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
Spike Jonze (Her)
Bob Nelson (Nebraska)
Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan (Philomena)
John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Analysis: Another tough one to predict. Hustle has comedy and Her has cleverness but John Ridley’s 12 Years A Slave script has the emotional power to crown a winner.

Best Animated Feature Film:
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Analysis: In a surprise move, Monsters University was left out cold (as were smaller foreign favorites that doesn’t qualify for this category). Despicable Me 2 may be the most successful nominee but Frozen has been getting an abundance of support from critics and early award groups.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises
Analysis: There’s many big-name foreign films here but none have attracted more acclaim or controversy than Blue Is The Warmest Color.

Steven Price's Gravity score is the frontrunner to win Best Original Score at tonight's Golden GlobesBest Original Score – Motion Picture:
Alex Ebert (All is Lost)
Alex Heffes (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Steven Price (Gravity)
John Williams (The Book Thief)
Hans Zimmer (12 Years a Slave)
Analysis: Hans Zimmer is one of the most respected film composers on the planet but Steven Price’s score for Gravity is eerie, pounding, and, best of all, in your face. Plus, it’s often the only noise in the film.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture:
Atlas (Hunger Games Catching Fire)
Let It Go (Frozen)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Please Mr. Kennedy (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Sweeter Than Fiction (One Chance)
Analysis: U2’s Ordinary Love could benefit from celebrity-status and Frozen‘s Let It Go is a true musical number. Nonetheless, Please Mr. Kennedy is witty, infectious, fun, and a likely winner.

And that’s all until The Golden Globes begin tonight at 8 ET/5 PT on ABC. Don’t forget to print out your own ballots and see how many categories you predict correctly!

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