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Flack Oscar Predictions for Other Categories (Flack’s Predictions)

Posted on | January 9, 2013 | 1 Comment

Steven Spielberg, the director of Lincoln (2012)

Here are my predictions for the 2012/13 Oscars for the big, most important categories only. Watch the nominations being unveiled, tomorrow morning (more details at the end of the article).

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

3. Ben Affleck (Argo)

4. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)

5. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Thoughts: Either Michael Haneke (Amour) and, less likely, Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) could push out Hooper. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) could make the cut for his brilliant debut/festival favorite. The Andersons, Wes (Moonrise Kingdom) and Paul Thomas (PTA, as he is known, for The Master), both got rave reviews for their indie flicks… But in a tight year, they don’t have enough pull to amass a nomination!

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Denzel Washington (Flight)

3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

4. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

5. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Thoughts: Come Oscar Night, it’s going to be Daniel’s Day (or should I say night, even though it doesn’t sound as good!). But as for the other 4 guys… They’re gonna’ have a tough time… Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Jack Black (Bernie), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Tom Holland (The Impossible), or, most likely of all, Ben Affleck (Argo) could replace the 4. Washington seems an almost definite lock but Hawkes seems almost definitely iffy.

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Emanuelle Riva (Amour)

3. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

4. Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

5. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Thoughts: The previous five seem pretty definitive, in my mind. Some say Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) is a possibility but I don’t think so, based on the overall negative reaction to Hitchcock. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) could take out Watts or Wallis but that’s slightly unlikely.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

2. Alan Arkin (Argo)

3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Thoughts: The first four, I mentioned are frontrunners. Then there’s the question of “Who gets a nom from Django Unchained” While that answer could be Christoph Waltz or Samuel L. Jackson, I’m thinking DiCaprio. He played strongly against type and has already picked up some awards from early critics circles, always a good sign. Other than that there’s not too many possibles, except for the entire cast of Cloud Atlas which I think is out. However, if Skyfall gets a Best Picture nomination then count DiCaprio out and Javier Bardem in for his menacing turn as a Bond “baddie to boo for”.

Anne Hathaway as Fantine gets an excruciating haircut in Les Miserables (2012)Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)

2. Sally Field (Lincoln)

3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

4. Amy Adams (The Master)

5. Judi Dench (Skyfall)

Thoughts: Hathaway has got a Day-Lewis lock on this one. Field and (less likely) Hunt will definitely get noms. But as for the last two spots…it’s murky territory!!! I’m going for Adams and Dench… Though either probably Ann Dowd (Compliance) and possibly Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) could take one of those two out.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)

3. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)

5. Rian Johnson (Looper)

Thoughts: Boal will unquestionably win it. Anderson and Coppola, Tarantino, and Anderson, again, are fairly certain. But it’s the fifth spot that I’m still debating about with myself. Johnson (Looper), Michael Haneke (Amour), or John Gatins (Flight) could snag the final nom. I’m thinking the Academy will take the category literally by picking the most original screenplay for the fifth spot: Rian Johnson (Looper)!

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Tony Kushner (Lincoln)

2. Chris Terrio (Argo)

3. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

4. David O. Russel (Silver Linings Playbook)

5. Stephen Chobsky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

Thoughts: Kushner’s got a lock for a win. Meanwhile, Terrio’s blend of comedy and seat-gripping set pieces, Alibar and Zeitlin’s exploding creativity, and O. Russel’s hilarious yet tragic tale should definitely grab noms. And for the fifth spot, I’m saying the Academy will honor Chobsky for adapting and directing his own novel. If they’re truly against the film, though, David Magee (Life of Pi) or William Nicholoson (Les Miserables) should be able to sneak up and…in! If those (this is an albeit unlikely situation) don’t get nominated then Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, and John Logan (Skyfall) and possibly Ben Levin (The Sessions) should creep into the category.

Isabelle Huppert as Eva and Jean-Lois Trintignant as Georges share a tense moment in Amour (2012)Best Foreign Film

1. Amour (Austria)

2. The Intouchables (France)

3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)

4. War Witch (Chile)

5. No (Canada)

Thoughts: I completely agree with Flick in this category. Amour will totally win and The Intouchables got lots of Oscar buzz back in May which should carry over to this category (though not Best Picture, as I previously predicted!!!). From there on, I don’t have much insight but A Royal Affair, War Witch, and No are being widely said to be the three other nominees.

Animated Feature

1. Wreck-It Ralph

2. Brave

3. Frankenweenie

4. ParaNorman

5. Le Tableau (The Painting)

Thoughts: A tricky category to predict. I’ve seen all 5 films (except Wreck-It Ralph). The order of the first four is hard to predict but the fifth spot is a real toughie. Most people think Rise of the Guardians. But how about The Pirates: Band of Misfits? Or possibly Hotel Transylvania? Or Madagscar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted? Or possibly maybe even The Rabbi’s Cat? But no, no, no!!! I’m thinking the 3-D French flick Le Tableau (The Painting) will snag the fifth spot.

Best Documentary

1. Searching For Sugar Man

2. The Gatekeepers

3. The Invisible War

4. The Imposter

5. How To Survive A Plague

Thoughts: A fairly certain bunch, though Bully or Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry could get noms. I predict Searching For Sugar Man will win, but I’m no expert at this one.

Best Picture

1. Lincoln

2. Zero Dark Thirty

3. Argo

4. Les Miserables

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Beasts of the Southern Wild

7. Life of Pi

8. Moonrise Kingdom

9. Amour

I’m guessing there will be ten nominees here. So below are my six possibilities for the 10th spot (in order of likeliness):

10. Skyfall

11. Django Unchained

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

13. The Master

14. The Impossible

15. The Sessions

Sorry Bilbo and Batman… Maybe next year!!!???

Don’t forget to turn on your TV and tune into ABC at 5:30AM PST and 8:30AM EST to watch Emma Stone, an actress from The Help and 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man, and Seth McFarlane (this year’s Oscar host!!!) announce the nominations on Januray 10th.

Comments

One Response to “Flack Oscar Predictions for Other Categories (Flack’s Predictions)”

  1. Abid
    January 12th, 2013 @ 5:28 pm

    It seems both of you and myself agree that Lincoln is the picture of the year. Second choice I have is Les Mes.

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