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Updated June Preview: Part 2

Posted on | June 23, 2012 | Add Comments

BraveAfter a little delay I’m back with part 2 of my June movie preview. I’ll talk about how the newest releases will do with critics and at the box office. I will talk about everything from global moneymaking to Rotten Tomatoes scores. Also just so you know OWG means opening weekend gross, DTG means domestic total gross, and ITG means international total gross. RT means Rotten Tomatoes.  Enjoy!

Seeking A Friend For The End Of The WorldJune 22nd: This week has one movie that will make a ton of money and likely become the highest grossing movie of June. There is also an oddball historical horror flick, an apocalyptic romantic comedy, and the latest effort from one of the world’s most admired directors. Of course the four films I am talking about are Pixar’s Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Seeking A Friend For The End of the World, and Woody Allen’s To Rome With Love. Adjusted for inflation no Pixar movie has made under $191 million in the US. Last year when Cars 2 made that much and became the first Pixar movie to make under $200 million domestically as well as get a rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes (39% splat) fans got worried. Will Brave be nominated for Best Picture the way Best Animated Film Oscar winners Up and Toy Story 3 were? Probably not. But will it make some money, get rather favorable reviews, and at the very least be nominated for the Best Animated Film at the Oscars? Yes. This is one of the summer movies I am most anticipated to see. The animation as always looks absolutely beautiful and the story and action seem pretty good. Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World stars Steve Carrell and Keira Knightley but it is rated R and has an indie crew. In other words not likely to be a mainstream box office hit. The director, Lorene Scafaria is directing for the first time ever but she wrote the movie Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist which got a 73% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. This should get about the same. At the box office that movie made $31 million in the US total and it was in wide release. Scafaria’s new movie has more star power than Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist but it has a much more limited release so it should do worse at the box office (it also has more tough competiton than Nick and Nora had) and it should do worse with the critics because it is slightly more mainstream. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter sounds ridiculous and will probably be a flop. Luckily it only cost $69 million and at least, worldwide it should earn a little more than that. Critics are also likely to call it one of the worst movies of the year. Meanwhile Woody Allen has a new movie, To Rome With Love a romantic comedy told in four star studded vignettes. This does not seem like it will be as successful as Midnight In Paris because it did not play at Cannes, let alone open Cannes, but it should still do okay with critics and good at the box office for a limited release.Here’s how I think past releases will fall into the rankings: Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted: $15 million Prometheus: $9 million Rock Of Ages: $6 million That’s My Boy: $5 million Brave: RT: 88% fresh OWG: $82 million DTG: $305 million ITG: $725 million Seeking A Friend for The End Of the World: RT: 70% fresh OWG: $5 million DTG: $15 million ITG: $18 million Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: RT: 13% splat OWG: $11 million DTG: $24 million ITG: $45 million To Rome With Love: RT: 71% fresh OWG: low because of limited release DTG: $4 million ITG: $25 million

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire HunterPeople Like UsJune 29th: R rated teddy bear comedy Ted and to a lesser extent, Dreamworks family drama, People Like Us should do not bad at the box office. Ted will probably be the second most successful adult comedy of the year, just behind $135 million grosser 21 Jump Street, that opened on March 16th this year. People Like Us is said to be “The Help” of the year: a Dreamworks summer drama. Or at least that’s what the ads say. But box office wise and definitely Oscar wise there is no way this will do as good as that film. For one People Like Us is not based on an extremely popular book with a lot fans who can’t wait to see the movie like The Help. Ted should open strong as what will perhaps be the only R rated comedy hit of the summer. Though it will only have four days too shine before The Amazing Spider Man it is aiming for a very different target audience. It will have to hold up very well in a summer this packed but I think it can make at least over  $100 million in the US alone. Meanwhile adult comedies Magic Mike and Tyler Perry’s Madea Witness Protection are also being released. Magic Mike star Channing Tatum led and two movies to over $100 million: The Vow in Febuary with $125 million and in 21 Jump Street March with $137 million . However this time around I don’t think that Tatum will pull it off. Meanwhile the Madea movie will also make little money. I expect both films to get bad reviews from the critics. Even if Ted and People Like Us turn out to be respectable hits there is simply no way that they can win the number 1 crown against likely to be massive holdover Brave, which should do fine with about $63 million, almost the same drop Monster’s Inc. had 11 years ago. Also Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter should drop to about $4 million showing no signs of being a big holdover success. That should also be true for Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World which I predict will turn in $3 million. To Rome With Love should continue to do okay for a limited release. That’s My Boy should make $2 million and Rock Of Ages $3 million. Critics will not like any of these new releases except for People Like Us and Ted just a little. Ted: RT: 69% OWG: $30 million DTG: $85 million ITG: $300 million People Like Us: RT: 75%  OWG: $19 million DTG:$66 million ITG: $120 million Magic Mike: RT: %19 OWG: $9 million DTG: $22 million ITG: $50 million Tyler Perry’s Madea Witness Protection: RT: 10% OWG: $3 million DTG: $8 million OWG: $15 million

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