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Box Office Battle Brews (Flack’s Report)

Posted on | March 14, 2012 | Add Comments

When 2011’s total box office total grosses were announced to be the lowest since 1995, high expectations were already being set for 2012.  I was personally surprised about 2011, considering that the last Harry Potter installment, not one but four super hero films, Transformers 3, and two Steven Spielberg films were all released.  But with Batman 3, a Spider-Man movie, the Avengers, and another Steven Spielberg movie all being released in 2012, excitement is starting to brew.

So far the box office is 24% higher at this than point last year.  But not quite as high as 2009 and 2010 at this point.  Coraline and Pink Panther 2 were released in early 2009 and Avatar was released in December 2009 and obviously carried over into early 2010.  This year 3 movies have already passed the 100 million dollar mark.  In order from least to greatest, they are:  the action movie, Safe House ($116 million), the romance, The Vow ($118 million), and the family film, The Lorax ($129 million).  Those movies also have the highest opening weekends, with $40 million, $41 million and $70 million.  Also twenty movies have passed the 30 million mark.  Still there have been a large number of commercial flops, such as, This Means War, The Woman in Black, The Grey, Red Tails, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, and so far John Carter.

Now let’s take a look at what other March blockbusters are coming up.

21 jump street movie

March 16, 2012: The Big Opening: 21 Jump Street.  Why it will be big?  Starring comedian and Oscar nominee, Jonah Hill.  And with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%, it’s likely to become a semi-big commercial, crowd pleaser. Why it will not be big: It’s rated R, which means that younger audiences won’t go.  Also others might not be old enough to remember the TV show.  My box office predictions:  Opening Weekend: $35 million, Domestic Total: $155 million, and International Total: $255 million.  Other movies opening that week:  Seeking Justice staring Nicolas Cage, Jeff who Lives at Home staring Jason Segel, and the Spanish film Casa de mi Padre starring Will Ferrel.

The Hunger Games

March 23, 2012: The Big Opening: The Hunger Games. Why: This is the biggest non-summer, non-holiday movie of the year.  Comparisons to Twilight could give it a push…. or not.  The first Twilight opened to 69 million dollars in it’s opening weekend, but this is likely to do better.  It has a massive, massive, massive fan base and could get great reviews.  Why not: It’s possible because not everyone is familiar with it, it might not do well.  My box office predictions: Opening Weekend: $80 million, Domestic Total: $350 million, and International Total: $400 million. Other movies opening that week:  The Raid: The Redemption, and Brake.

Wrath of the Titans

March 30, 2012: The Big Openings:  Wrath of the Titans, and Mirror Mirror. Why? The first Titans movies was released to a $61 million weekend, suggesting this could very well possibly follow in its footsteps.  The first Titans movie was badly reviewed, and got a 28% splat on Rotten Tomatoes.  The 2 worst reviewed elements, however, are back: Sam Worthington and 3-D, but the first earned $300 million overseas, making this one a potential blockbuster. Also people now know that they didn’t like the first one so they might not return for a sequel.  Meanwhile Mirror Mirror is the more family-friendly of the two Snow White movies, opening in 2012.  It also stars Julia Roberts.  But it’s not a summer movie, an action movie, or a Kristen Stewart movie, or even a movie with Thor in it, which the other one is all of those. My box office predictions for Wrath of the Titans:  Opening Weekend: $40 million, Domestic Total: $200 million, International Total: $300 million.  My Mirror Mirror box office predictions: Opening Weekend: $25 million, Domestic Total: $115 million, International Total: $170 million.

Mirror Mirror

One last note, I wanted to point out is that all top 1o movies at the box office right now have a SPLAT on Rotten Tomatoes, which means they are badly reviewed.  However I expect that to change for new movies coming out, particularly the first two ones I was just talking about  Many people are saying that all this good box office will lead people into the Summer, however I hope that some of the Summer movies get good reviews.  In December, I’m expecting The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey to be the big holiday movie and Lincoln (directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Daniel Day Lewis) to be the big Oscar movie and a potential blockbuster. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will probably be first or second place along with The Dark Knight Rises for the whole, entire year. The Amazing Spider-Man, Skyfall, and The Avengers will round out the top 5 for the year (not in order).  More Summer movies preview for 2012 are coming soon.

The Hobbit

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