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2012 Summer Movies: Top 15 Blockbusters Part 1: Flack’s Predictions

Posted on | March 31, 2012 | Add Comments

Here is the first of my 3 summer movie preview articles.  I will talk about my predictions for the top 15 biggest money making blockbusters from May to August 2012.  I will have my predictions for the opening weekend (OWG), domestic total (DTG), and international total (ITG) box office grosses.  The next 2 articles are my guesses for the top 15 best critically reviewed movies and my list of the ones I want to see. I have researched on such various websites as IMDB, Box Office Mojo, Rotten Tomatoes, Entertainment Weekly, and Empire as well as The New York Times. I’ll say why I think these movies will be big and why they might not be big. Plus I’ll throw in a few funny jokes and more.

The Bourne Legacy
15. The Bourne Legacy Release Date: August 3 Why it will be big: The three previous Bourne movies grossed $121 million, $176 million, and $227 million.  Their opening weekends were $27 million, $52 million, and $69 million. That means this one should do pretty good. The bad bars in the trailer are annoying but with a Casino Royale (violent spy prequel) approach it might just work.  Why it might not be big: Casting Jeremy Renner instead of Matt Damon could be a mistake. The movie was Bourne to be in 14th place. OWG: $45 million DTG: $130 million ITG: $250 million

Paranorman

14.  ParaNorman Release Date: August 17  Why it will be big: Despite only making $75 million, Coraline still got a good Rotten Tomatoes score (90%). ParaNorman is another movie from the same studio, Laika Entertainment, and is shaping up to be a hit.  Why it might not be big: Another movie from Laika Entertainment, 9, only grossed $31 million, with a budget of $30 million. Also August is a bad release date because then the movies don’t play all summer long. However last year The Help and Rise of the Planet of the Apes were breakout box office biggies but were still released in August. Still, ParaNorman does not seem likely to make paranormal grosses at the box  office. This will have to do a lot better than 9. OWG: $50 million DTG: $150 million ITG: $255 million

GI Joe 2

13. G.I. Joe: Retaliation Release Date: June 29 Why it will be big: Channing Tatum (he is in six movies this year) returns in this action-packed sequel. Adding Dwayne Johnson and Bruce Willis to the cast is a great idea and should give it an overall boost. The trailer suggests non-stop ridiculous action. Joe will go to 13th place. Why it might not be big: Stephen Sommers, the director of the first film had directed films with Dwayne Johnson, but for the sequel they have brought in Jon M. Chu, the director of the documentary, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never. Although the first film (G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra) in the series made $150 million and had a $54 opening weekend, it got a 34% SPLAT on Rotten Tomatoes, which means it got bad reviews. Big box office and bad reviews is a combination likely to happen again. OWG: $65 million DTG: $155 million ITG: $265 million

Neighborhood Watch

12. Neighborhood Watch Release Date: July 27 Why it will be big: Watch out this movie will be in 12th place.  This sci-fi comedy stars Jonah Hill and Ben Stiller, a comedy duo that seems like it will work. Add in aliens and a good end of July release date, and you have got a hit. It’s the director’s first film (Akiva Schaffer), but Shawn Levy (director of the Night at the Museum movies, Date Night, and Real Steel) is producing it. The trailer shows both ridiculous comedy and funny comedy. Why it might not be big: Will a combination of sci-fi and comedy work? Will the actors have good chemistry? OWG: $55 million DTG: $200 million ITG: $270

Snow White and the Huntsman

11. Snow White and the Huntsman Release Date: June 1  Why it will be big: This movie will hunt down 11th place. The Twilight meets Alice in Wonderland without the humor approach will probably work. Add in the fact that it stars Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlize Theron, and the movie will probably do good at the box office (or at least better than Mirror Mirror). Why it might not be big: Mirror Mirror will draw in family audiences, but will enough teenagers and adults want to see this dark version of the tale.  OWG: $65 million DTG: $200 million ITG: $300 million

Dark Shadows

10. Dark Shadows Release Date: May 11 Why it will be big: Tim Burton, Johnny Depp, and Helena Bonham Carter have made some big blockbusters, with such massive money makers as Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($472 million) and especially Alice in Wonderland ( $1 billion). Their newest effort will have tons of wildly eccentric comedy and the trailer looks pretty entertaining. Michelle Pfeiffer, Eva Green, and Chloe Grace Mortez round out the supporting cast. Horror comedy and fantasy romance should prove to be a strong enough combination to beat The Dictator at the box office on the same opening weekend. Why it might not be big: Most people are not enjoying the trailer and few people are familiar with TV show (although that might be good, because fans of the TV show are saying that it is way too different). OWG: $65 million DTG: $205 million ITG: $315 million

Madagascar 3

9. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted Release Date: June 8 Why it will be big: This movie is wanted by 9th place. The two previous Madagascar movies made $47 and $63 million in their opening weekends, $180 and $193 million in the domestic total, and $532 and $603 million in their international total. Now, those are some movies that like to move it to the box office. Will the third film follow those foot steps? Why not? I mean it has 3-D, which the others did not have. Plus there’s a new villain played by Frances McDormand, some circus fun, bad pop songs, and Jessica Chastain. The makers even moved the rude humor out of the movie (or at least they moved it moved it moved it out of the trailer). Why it might not be big: Also being released on June 8 is Prometheus, which is although being targeted for a totally different audience will beat this at the box office. Will people still find this series likable?  I haven’t seen any of them because they looked so terrible, but I might see this one if I have to. I think that this one will not make as much as the others because nobody wants to watch this movie series anymore. OWG: $70 million DTG: $210 Million ITG: $350 million

Ice Age

8. Ice Age: Continental Drift Release Date: July 13 Why it will be big: This movie will drift into 8th place. The previous Ice Age movies have all made over $176 million domestically, and more than $383 million internationally.  The most recent movie made $886 million internationally, which means this one is sure to make money.  The trailer shows a lot of action and comedy, a combination which well worked in the others. In this one the characters think the world is ending, and there are some new creatures joining them, including a band of evil pirates. Many family audiences will definitely rush out to see the movie.  Why it might not be big:  Will people have series fever and be tired of the Ice Age movie series as I’m guessing they might be with Madagascar.  Probably not too much, but I don’t think this one will be quite as big a hit, as the previous two films internationally. OWG: $70 million DTG: $200 Million ITG: $400 million

Battleship

7. Battleship Release Date: May 18 Why it will be big: The Transformers series did remarkably well. The first film had a $70 million opening weekend, made $319 million domestically, and even grossed $709 million internationally. Battleship is based on a game and has a trailer involving things blowing up, robots blowing up, people blowing robots up, things blowing up robots blowing up people blowing robots up etc. The movie looks like it has been created in the same mold as the Transformers series. What does this have though, that Transformers does not have? A star studded cast including Liam Neeson, Taylor Kitsch, Rihanna, Alexander Skarsgard, and Brooklyn Decker, a newbie who is also in the ensemble comedy romance What to Expect When You’re Expecting, which also opens on May 18, the same weekend as Battleship. Why it might not be big: The trailer looks like a dreadful mix of things blowing up robots blowing up people blowing up blowing up up up up up up up, you get the idea, a boring story, and uninteresting characters. Peter Berg, the director had stressed that the film had a great story and that no aliens are in it for over half an hour. After watching the trailer I can already tell that there is no story. And I bet that even if there are no aliens in it for a while that there is still just guns and other non-alien action. And the movie is probably 2 and a half hours or something. I love long movies but only when they have a story. But still people like and sometimes sadly love that stuff so why should they even care. OWG: $75 million DTG: $250 million ITG: $415 million

Prometheus

6. Prometheus Release Date: June 8 Why it will be big: Prometheus stars Noomi Rapace (the original Girl with The Dragon Tattoo), Michael Fassbender, Charlize Theron, Guy Pearce, Patrick Wilson, and Idris Elba. It is a science-fiction horror movie from the acclaimed director Ridley Scott, and is said to be distantly related to the Alien franchise. With a cool yet scary trailer, this could be the biggest horror movie of the year. Why it might not be big: Because I can’t see it. Yeah, but a billion other people can and will, so it does not really matter. I think this movie will be the Super 8 of the Summer, meaning a surprising sci-fi film that has secrets and is a little scary. The only problem is that Super 8 was not a huge blockbuster (the good news: Super 8 was the best summer movie of last year, 2011 and the second best movie of the year). Also the Alien movies never made over $85 million domestically and $161 million internationally. OWG: $95 million DTG: $280 million ITG: $425 million

Men in Black 3

5. Men in Black 3  Release Date: May 25  Why it will be big: The previous 2 Men in Black movies were massive box office smashes. The first film got 91% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, but the second got a 39% splat, even though it was a box office success.  That means 10 years after the third will have to be really good, make a lot of money, and do well with critics, in order for the series to continue.  This will have to be a case like the Indiana Jones series, where the first one has good box office and does well with critics, the second one only does good at the box office but then the third one they bring in a new actor, Sean Connery, or in this case, Josh Brolin and the series is better than ever.  Based on the funny and action-packed trailer, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be a smash.  Why it might not be big:  As I said before the second MIB movie didn’t do well with critics, the third might not either.  another problem is that like with other series, people might be tired of it.  OWG: $100 million DTG: $285 million ITG: $450 million

Brave

4. Brave Release Date: June 22  Why it will be big: The people who work at Pixar are the best animation makers in the world. They also do good at the box office. Toy Story 3 made $110 on it’s opening weekend, $415 million domestically, and $1 billion internationally. It  also got a 99% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and easily earned back it’s $200 million budget. Meanwhile their next film, Cars 2 made $66 million on it’s opening weekend, $191 domestically, and $559 million internationally. It also got a 38% on Rotten Tomatoes and earned back it’s $200 million budget. Well let’s hope that Brave is more like Toy Story 3 (which has a better trailer than Brave) than Cars 2 (which does not have as good a trailer as Brave). Anyway medieval action sword fights, a strong cast of characters, and Pixar’s classic comedy plus a female heroine should prove to be a strong combination. It’s also a good idea to release Brave at the end of school, just exactly like Toy Story 3 and Cars 2. Why it might not be big: Will the female heroine work? Yes. Will the fairy tale elements work? Probably. So, what’s not to like?  OWG: $105 million DTG: $300 million ITG: $500 million

Spiderman

3. The Amazing Spider-Man Release Date: July 3 Why it will be big: This movie will swing amazingly into 3rd place. With one of the top 3 trailers of the year (in my opinion) and involving a lot of action, this is sure to be a blockbuster. However, many people are hoping for a more emotional story than the previous 3 Sam Raimi directed, Tobey Maguire starred, movies. That’s because the director Marc Webb’s only other movie is the independent hit (500) Days Of Summer and the star of this version is The Social Network actor Andrew Garfield. Add in there a cool villain The Lizard played by Rhys Ifans, a love interest played by Emma Stone, some awesome 3-D, great web-slinging action, and a script by Harry Potter screenwriter Steve Kloves and TA-DAAAAAAAA!!!!! I have high hopes.  Why it might not be big: People are saying this is too soon for a reboot. I mean, Spider-Man 3 came out 5 years ago and this very same origin story was shown on screens just ten years ago, in 2002 when Spider-Man was released. Also I doubt this will do Spider-Man 3 numbers at the box office (that movie was the highest grossing of the year and made $151 million on its opening weekend). OWG: $125 million DTG: $400 million ITG: $850 million

The Avengers

2. The Avengers Release Date: May 4 Why it will be big: I think it’s a great idea that the movie is being release on May 4th, not only with the 4th be with it, but also it’s a great way to start the summer movie season. Marvel used this technique with both the Iron Man movies and Thor being released on May 2nd, May 7th, and May 6th, respectively. They debuted at $98 million, $128 million, and $65 million, respectively. Meanwhile Captain America: The First Avenger, on July 22, with $65 million. The Incredible Hulk was released on June 13th and made $55 million on the opening weekend. The worst domestic total was The Incredible Hulk at $134 million, meanwhile the best was Iron Man with $318 million. The worst international total was The Incredible Hulk with $263 million, meanwhile the best was Iron Man 2 with $623 million. This plan will be used again for the Iron Man 3 release planned for May 3rd 2013. Combining all these super hero characters together will surely pay off in some aspects: It will be fun watching them battle each other, and with so many actors they’ll have to have great chemistry. Joss Whedon is an acclaimed TV writer/director. If he writes a script anywhere as good as the one he did with 3 other people for Toy Story, this will be an amazing movie and one of the best super hero movies of all time. Why it might not be big: It’s possible that with so many characters the movie will become both distracting and bad.Will the focus be on Iron Man? I hope so because he’s the coolest. Will it be on Hawkeye?  I think so because he’s the new character. Or will it be on Captain America?  He’s the most likely because he’s now in 2012 not the 1940s and will be re-introduced to the Avengers in the same way the audience is. OWG: $155 million DTG: $450 million ITG: $900 million

The Dark Knight Rises

1. The Dark Knight Rises Release Date: July 20  Why it will be big: This movie will rise to 1st place. With Christian Bale returning as Batman, fans are going crazy. And for fairly good reason. Batman Begins grossed $48 million on it’s opening weekend, $205 domestically, and $372 internationally. It also got an 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, earned back it’s $150 million budget, and became the 12 biggest superhero movie of all time. Meanwhile the 2008 sequel to the 2005 prequel, The Dark Knight, did the impossible. Making $158 million on it’s opening weekend (beat only by HP 7 part 2, but at the time the best ever), $533 domestically, and $1 billion internationally. It also received a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, got back it’s $185 million budget, and became the biggest superhero movie of all time. Hopefully this final film in the trilogy will be just as fulfilling as Toy Story 3. The cryptic yet exciting trailers make this the event movie of the summer. Just like in 2010 (Toy Story 3) and in 2011 (Hp 7 Part 2) this year the biggest movie of the summer (and possibly the year) is another beloved franchise coming to a close. Why it might not be big: The consensus of preview screening buzz is that Bane, the bad guy played by Tom Hardy, has a hard to understand voice. If he doesn’t work out though Anne Hathaway as Catwoman certainly will certainly work out.  In addition to Tom Hardy other Inception actors in the movie include Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Marion Cotilard, as new characters, but will they make the story too confusion and complex. If they do prove too confusing, then at least there will be older fan favorites such as Gary Oldman, Michael Caine, and Morgan Freeman. Although these problems are all possibilities, the movie is still likely to be a success. Why? Because with an intriguing cast, cool special effects, and the rising anticipation, the movies is going to be a hit. I think this movie is going to be 8th highest grossing film of all time and it will have the best opening weekend of all time. OWG: $175 million DTG: $550 million ITG: $1 billion

Moonrise Kingdom

Honorary Independent Blockbuster. Moonrise Kingdom Release Date: May 25 Why it will be big: The movie stars a great cast including Bill Murray, Jason Schwartzman, Frances Mcdormand, Harvey Keitel, Tilda Swinton, Bruce Willis, Edward Norton, and newcomers Jared Gilman and Kara Hayard.  It’s directed by Wes Anderson, maker of wacky comedies and dramas. I think this movie will be the Midnight in Paris of the year, because just like that other film it will be the opening night movie at Cannes and is a comedy/romance/drama. This movie could be nominated for Oscars just like Midnight in Paris.  Plus another massive factor is the film was shot in Rhode Island, the smallest and best state. Why it might not be big: Will the newcomers be good or will this be their last movie? OWG: $5 million DTG: $55 million ITG: $150 million

Premium Rush

Honorary Original Blockbuster. Preminum Rush Release Date: August 24 Why it will be big: David Koepp, the writer and director also wrote Spider-Man, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Mission:Impossible, Jurassic Park, War of the Worlds, and more. Plus it stars Michael Shannon and Joseph Gordon- Levitt. The trailer shows an odd yet original combination of crazy stunts and realistic action. Why it might not be big:  I doubt it will rush past 15th place. Sadly but truly originality isn’t very popular these days so will the “you’ve never seen this before” approach. work or not? OWG: $35 million DTG: $100 million ITG: $150 million

Other Possible Blockbusters: The Expendables 2 Release Date: August 12 OWG: $40 million DTG: $115 million ITG: $300 million, The Dictator Release Date: May 11 OWG: $30 million DTG: $140 million ITG: $230 million, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Release Date: June 22 OWG: $40 million DTG: $200 million ITG: $240 million, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Release Date: June 22 OWG: $30 million DTG: $100 million ITG: $130 million, Total Recall Release Date: June 22 OWG: $35 million DTG: $125 million ITG: $175 million, Rock of Ages Release Date: June 15 OWG: $35 million DTG: $125 million ITG: $200 million, The Campaign Release Date: August 10 OWG: $35 million DTG: $125 million ITG: $190 million, The Odd Life of Timothy Green Release Date: August 17  OWG: $30 million DTG: $125 million ITG: $150 million, and The Wettest Country Release Date: August 31 OWG: $25 million DTG: $50 million ITG: $100 million

Okay then, that’s it! Wait no, it’s not! Look out for a parts 2 and 3 (you’ll get to comment on favorites and critically acclaimed movies) coming soon to a computer near you. In the comments section tell me what you think will be the highest grossing movies of the summer and your OWG, DTG and ITG predictions. Also you can tell what you think of my predictions.

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